The Linderbaum Decision

Flagship case study

Pay him or replace him? Two 2022 centers, two paths — Baltimore paid up, Philadelphia didn't. All figures are pulled live from nflverse and Over The Cap — both extensions are real, so this is a case study, not a counterfactual.

Tyler Linderbaum

BAL

Cam Jurgens

PHI

1 · Draft equity — what it cost to acquire

R1 #25

Draft slot

R2 #51

1305

Pick value (Fitzgerald-Spielberger)

929

Value delivered to team (dr_AV)

2 · The bill — what they're paid now

$27M

Extension APY

$17M

$60M

Guaranteed

$23.3M

3 yrs

Term

4 yrs

3 · On the field — 2024 O-line unit

O-Line Unit Index rank

20%

Pressure % allowed (lower better)

20.3%

3.29

Yds before contact / rush

3.24

1094 / 17

Durability (2024 snaps / games)

1068 / 16

Baltimore spent more draft capital (R1 vs R2) and far more cash — $27M APY and $60M guaranteed vs Jurgens' $17M and $23.3M — for an offensive line that grades one rung apart (#3 vs #4). Linderbaum is the better pure player (34 dr_AV to 20), but the ~$10M/yr, $36.7M-guaranteed premium buys continuity and ceiling — not a different tier of protection. The “replace, don't pay” path got Philadelphia nearly the same unit at a fraction of the commitment. That is the Linderbaum Decision every front office faces.